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Investor update from TCorp’s Funding and Investor Relations team

Published 5 February 2026

The NSW Government’s strategy of fiscal repair to improve economic resilience is gaining traction, with the state’s forecast return to surplus in 2027-28 rising to $1.3bn.

Along with a bigger surplus, the half-year budget review for the 2025-26 financial year projects a lower funding requirement compared to the June 2025 budget papers.

The forecast borrowing requirement for 2025-26 is now $21.8bn, down $2.4bn, and $21.6bn in 2026-27, down $4bn.

While the revised budget position reaffirms the government’s commitment to restoring fiscal sustainability, there are continuing risks from the unstable geopolitical environment.

Despite those risks, the government has been able to implement its agenda, managing expense growth and strengthening the state’s revenue base.

The more buoyant revenue outlook since the 2025-26 budget has been driven by stronger stamp duty revenue and an improved performance by OneFund, which has a balance of $70.4bn at the end of calendar 2025 and is managed by TCorp’s investment management business. OneFund brings together several of the state’s investment funds to strengthen the state’s balance sheet, leading to improved investment returns and building long-term value for future generations.

On the debt side, the downward trajectory in issuance is helping to deliver the government’s objective to target a a sustainable gross debt position at around  20% of gross state product.

Together with projected revenue gains, it enables effective management of the state’s interest expense and investment in key services such as housing, health and education.

It also supports smaller, more manageable infrastructure spending – equivalent to about 2% of gross state product – on road and rail networks.

In a world increasingly characterised by volatility and churn, consistency and predictability become prized and sought-after commodities.

A fiscal strategy delivered over the long term, coupled with a strong credit rating profile – Aaa by Moody’s, AAA by Fitch and AA+ by Standard & Poor’s – will continue to make NSW an attractive issuer for investors.